Research
Working papers
Effects of Transit-Oriented Incentive Programs: Evidence from Los Angeles
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of transit-oriented development incentives on multifamily housing development, using the implementation of Los Angeles’s Transit- Oriented Communities (TOC) incentive program as a natural experiment. Introduced in 2017, TOC streamlined the entitlement process for and granted density bonuses to qualifying projects near major transit stops. Using novel, project-level data covering applications, approvals, and permits from 2004 to 2023, I document a sharp increase in development proposals following the program’s rollout. However, this increase in applications did not translate into a rise in the rate of new housing supply. The program did shift the composition of new development: TOC projects were more likely to include income-restricted units and be located in lower-income, renter-occupied neighborhoods. Using a structural framework and estimated approval probabilities, I show that TOC enabled projects that would have faced lower approval chances or higher appeal risk under the previous discretionary regime. These findings highlight how procedural streamlining can shift the type and location of urban development, even if aggregate supply effects are limited.Environmental Externalities of Urban Growth: Evidence from the California Wildfires
New draft coming soon! Media coverage: WSJ
Abstract
Human activity is the primary cause of wildfires in California, suggesting that land development may affect the probability of ignition and create environmental externalities. This paper quantifies these externalities using geospatial data and finds that housing development has a non-monotonic effect on the probability of ignition. Converting 2.5 acres of wildland into low-density development at the urban fringe increases the annual probability of wildfire ignition by 0.34-0.67 percentage points, compared to an average yearly probability of 1.74 percent. The probability of ignition decreases at higher rates of land development under weaker drought conditions. Suppression costs also increase with nearby development; each new housing unit near an ignition site generates up to \$23,774 in expected annual suppression costs for small fires. Policy simulations show that limiting greenfield development while relaxing urban supply constraints reduces wildfire-related costs, while restricting supply without offsetting infill development may worsen risk. These results highlight the importance of coordinated land use policy to mitigate wildfire externalities as climate change intensifies fire conditions.Equilibrium Effects of Eviction Protections: The Case of Legal Assistance
(with Rob Collinson, John Eric Humphries, Scott Nelson, Winnie van Dijk, and Daniel Waldinger) R&R, AER
Abstract
“Right-to-counsel” programs provide free legal assistance to tenants in eviction court. Legal assistance can delay or prevent eviction. However, large-scale legal assistance programs can also generate costs for tenants due to equilibrium rental market responses. In this paper, we study how right to counsel impacts rental markets when implemented at scale, and quantify the policy’s impact on tenant welfare. Leveraging the geographic rollout of New York City’s program, we find listed rent prices rose by $22-$38/month within two years of policy implementation, with larger increases in areas with higher baseline eviction rates. We do not find evidence that landlords adjusted on other margins, such as tenant screening or improvements to habitability. Guided by these results, we develop a framework to evaluate the policy’s welfare implications for tenants, incorporating the trade-off between protection from eviction and higher rent prices. We quantify the parameters of our framework using linked data on eviction court cases, rental housing listings, and tenant earnings trajectories. Despite the direct benefits and insurance value of stronger eviction protections, the estimated price increases are large enough to generate a small net reduction in ex-ante tenant welfare.Work in Progress
Towards a Measurement of Rental Property Ownership in the United States
(with Rebecca Diamond, John Eric Humphries, Kate Pennington, Winnie van Dijk and John Voorheis)
Abstract
In this project, we use restricted U.S. Census data to construct new measures of rental housing ownership concentration at the CBSA level. We use these measures to document new facts about the supply side of the rental housing market, inclduing landlord size distribution across housing types (single or multi-family), neighborhood characteristics, and geography. We then estimate the impact of portfolio size and landlord typology (business or individual) on pricing, vacancy, and screening behavior. We validate methods commonly used in the literature to measure rental property ownership, as well as ownership-type measures from the Residential Housing and Finance Survey.Other writings
Who’s Talking about their COVID-19 Research? Gender and Research During a Pandemic (with Alex Albright, Kristen McCormack, and Isabel Harbaugh Macdonald), June 2020